HIMS Deep Dive: Can it 5x?

Co-written by the Smartfin Team and @YodaStocks

In today’s market environment, there are a lot of stocks hyped by retail. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) presents an interesting growth opportunity in the telehealth space, especially for long-term investors comfortable with risk. From valuation to growth to strategic positioning within the future of healthcare, this comprehensive breakdown explores why HIMS is such an opportunity. While the stock’s valuation may appear high, its revenue trajectory and margin expansion suggest potential, though execution and competition remain key challenges. Let’s dive into what sets HIMS apart.

Introduction for New Investors

If you’re hearing about Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) for the first time, you’re not alone, but you might be early. HIMS is a fast-growing, direct-to-consumer telehealth company aiming to transform how people access healthcare, starting with everyday issues like hair loss, mental health, weight management, and more. By cutting out the traditional doctor’s office and pharmacy, HIMS brings personalized treatment directly to your doorstep, affordably and discreetly.

While the stock has already caught the attention of some retail investors, many are still unaware of how strong its fundamentals, growth, and long-term potential truly are. This deep dive is designed to walk you through why HIMS may be one of the most promising growth stocks in the market today, even after recent gains. We’ll break down the numbers, examine its strategic moves (like the ZAVA acquisition and new treatment launches), and explore multiple future scenarios to help you understand both the upside and the risks.

Whether you’re cautious from past SPAC hype or just curious about the future of digital health, this analysis will give you a grounded, data-driven look at what makes HIMS a compelling long-term play.

Let’s dive in.

1. Valuation: Reasonable for its Growth

When analyzing a fast-growing tech company like HIMS, traditional valuation metrics can be misleading unless they are put in the context of growth. Understanding what these numbers mean is key for beginner investors. Let’s break them down first:

• P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings): This tells you how much investors are willing to pay for $1 of a company’s earnings. It’s calculated by dividing the stock price by the earnings per share (EPS). For example, a P/E of 32 means the stock trades at 32 times its annual earnings. Higher P/E ratios usually suggest high growth expectations, while lower ones may indicate undervaluation or risk.
• Forward P/E: This is just like the regular P/E ratio, but instead of using past earnings, it uses projected (future) earnings, usually based on analyst estimates for the next year. It helps investors decide if a stock is fairly priced based on what it is expected to earn. A lower forward P/E can indicate that a stock is undervalued relative to its future growth.
• P/S Ratio (Price-to-Sales): This compares the stock price to the company’s revenue (or sales), rather than earnings. It’s calculated by dividing the company’s market cap by its total revenue. This is especially useful for companies that may not yet be highly profitable but are growing revenue quickly. A lower P/S can suggest a stock is undervalued relative to how much it's selling.

Now, here are HIMS’s key valuation figures in context:

Metric	Value	Context
Forward PE	48 (EPS 1.04 expected 2025)	2.5x the average stock
2-year FPE	36 (EPS 1.38 expected 2026)	<2x the average
Revenue Growth	FY2025 56–63%	9x the average stock
Forward P/S	4.8 (2.35B expected 2025)	Low for these growth rates
Market Cap	$11.3B	Midcap stock

Important to take into account here is that Hims has an incredible track record of beating numbers, so these valuations numbers are likely to be higher than the reality.

In short, HIMS trades at a premium relative to traditional metrics (FWD P/E ~48), which reflects investor optimism around growth and profitability. That said, sustained high growth, especially with disciplined cost control, could justify the valuation. However, any slowdown or margin compression would likely result in multiple contraction.

When looking at HIMSs revenue growth story, about 9x the average stock, the current valuation appears reasonable and leaves actual solid upside for the coming years if management keeps executing.

Market Cap Perspective

With a current market cap of approximately $11B, HIMS has meaningful room for expansion if it continues to scale successfully. Should the company execute well on its strategy, including expanding internationally, launching new verticals, and improving margins, a much larger valuation could be achievable over the next 5–10 years.

For context, established healthcare leaders such as Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) are valued in the hundreds of billions. While HIMS operates a different business model, these comparisons highlight the size of the broader market opportunity. However, achieving similar scale would require sustained execution across multiple fronts, including product expansion, regulatory navigation, and long-term margin discipline.

Revenue Growth & Net Income

• Revenue growth remained consistently high — above 80% YoY from 2021 through early 2023.
• Although it temporarily dipped to 47% in late 2023, the trend reversed sharply: revenue growth rebounded to 111% by March 2025.
• Net income remained negative until Q3 2023, but losses steadily narrowed over time.
• HIMS turned profitable by Q4 2023, posting $1M in profit, then scaled profitability dramatically.

This shift demonstrates operating leverage: as revenue grows, fixed costs are spread across a larger base, boosting margins.

HIMS is now in its “scaling” phase. Still growing top-line aggressively, but with real profitability. The company is showing one of the most attractive growth + margin profiles in the market — a rare combination.

2. Catalysts

Catalysts are upcoming events or changes that can significantly influence the company's stock price in the near future and more distant future. For HIMS, several key developments are lining up that could drive momentum over the next 6–18 months but also in future years:

• Executive Order: Trump-era executive order promoting DTC drug pricing opens the door to wider access and cheaper prescriptions via platforms like HIMS.
• ZAVA Acquisition: Instantly boosts subscriber count by 50% and opens the European market.
• New Management: Recent hires (CTO, COO) bring experience and execution strength.
• Upcoming Launches: Testosterone and menopause treatments coming in H2 2025 — both with huge TAMs.
• High Short Interest: 30%+ short interest could trigger a squeeze if momentum builds.
• S&P 500 Eligibility: $91+ share price brings HIMS into S&P500 inclusion territory ($20.5B MC required).
• Low Street Expectations: Analysts are modeling only ~20% revenue growth in 2026, far below management guidance and historical performance.

Taken together, these catalysts represent not just temporary boosts, but meaningful steps toward HIMS's larger vision in healthcare and global expansion. Management has many strategic moves in motion, setting the stage for exponential growth between now and 2030.

3. The Healthcare Context

The U.S. healthcare system is inefficient, expensive, and inconvenient. European systems need modernization. HIMS presents a digital-first, DTC solution with:

• No waiting rooms, paperwork, or stigma
• Services tailored for Gen Z & Millennials
• Integrated care from diagnostics to delivery
• Primary care, mental health, weight loss, and more

HIMS is a telehealth company. It is also a scalable, data-driven healthcare platform that could become the Amazon of health.

4. Why the ZAVA Deal is So Massive

The ZAVA acquisition gives HIMS a faster entry into Europe, where regulatory frameworks are often slower and less receptive to DTC models. While this expands the total addressable market, execution risk and regional differences could impact monetization. Analysts should view this as a strategic move, but not a guaranteed growth engine.

5. HIMS Business Segments

HIMS offers more than just GLP-1s. The platform includes:

• Hair loss, ED, anxiety & depression
• GLP-1s for weight loss (Ozempic, Wegovy)
• Upcoming: testosterone, menopause, longevity, peptides
• Owns pharmacies & fulfillment centers

GLP-1s are a growth driver, but not the only one. Core business remains resilient. Platform expansion into multiple verticals increases stickiness and LTV.

They have their own pharmacy and fulfillment centers. Looking at the future, peptides will be a massive industry and offer a big opportunity if HIMS capitalizes on it. Coming soon for HIMS are testosterone, menopause, sleep, longevity & prevention.

Each segment plays a role in HIMSs long-term vision of becoming the go-to DTC health platform. While GLP-1s have been the growth engine, core business growth has been resilient. HIMS is positioned to benefit across multiple new upcoming layers of healthcare.

6. Legendary Leadership

Behind every great company transformation is a great leader, and for HIMS, that leader is founder Andrew Dudum. He took HIMS public in his 20s and is planning to take over and revolutionize U.S. healthcare, for the better of consumers.

Under Andrew Dudum’s leadership, HIMS has rapidly scaled since 2018, demonstrating strong product-market fit and operational discipline. The company has also begun assembling a seasoned management team to support long-term growth. While Dudum’s vision has been a driving force, sustained execution at scale, particularly in a highly regulated industry like healthcare, will require continued strategic hires and adaptive leadership.

7. HIMS 2026–2028 Projections: Disclaimer

Before diving into the numbers, it’s important to understand the assumptions behind these projections. These scenarios — bear, base, and bull — reflect reasonable expectations based on HIMS’s current growth trajectory, market position, and management execution.

They do not include black swan events or major macroeconomic disruptions.

These scenarios offer a reasonable framework for evaluating HIMS’s future upside under different growth paths.

No extreme “hype cycle” valuations are assumed. Only reasonable multiples similar to what HIMS is valued at today. In the possible scenario that HIMS would temporarily or for a longer period of time get a near Palantir-like valuation from Wall Street, the upside potential is of course even larger.

Certain events such as S&P500 inclusion could lead to an even greater valuation and therefore even better returns, while market downdrafts can lead to a more compressed valuation.

Stock-based compensation (SBC) dilution is not modeled explicitly.

Projections use an average growth rate across the years. In reality, individual years will likely vary.

The goal is to provide a structured framework to understand what HIMS might look like in 2028 based on current data and realistic assumptions.

8. Bear Case: Softer Growth, Lower Valuation

Revenue: 2.4B 2025	25% growth YoY 2026–2028	4.68B revenue 2028
EPS: 1.08 EPS 2025	30% growth YoY 2026–2028	2.37 EPS 2028
Valuation	FPE of 40 in 2028	S&P 500 inclusion, 25%+ growth (top & bottom line) — lower valuation than today

This scenario assumes HIMS only delivers slightly above their long-term revenue guidance CAGR of 22.2%, whilst they are known to massively outgrow their own expectations. Especially with the newly known revenue impulse of the ZAVA acquisition this would be disappointing.

Despite 25% revenue and 30% EPS growth and S&P500 inclusion within this timeframe, the stock receives a downgrade in valuation compared to today. Even here, long-term investors could still see strong returns, highlighting the asymmetry in risk/reward.

Despite conservative assumptions, even the bear case shows strong market outperformance.

9. Base Case: Consistent Execution and Major Upside

Revenue: 2.45B 2025	30% growth YoY 2026–2028	5.38B revenue 2028
EPS: 1.15 EPS 2025	50% growth YoY 2026–2028	3.88 EPS 2028
Valuation	FPE of 50 in 2028	S&P 500 inclusion, 30%+ growth (top & bottom line) — same valuation as today; assumes continued strong investor support

This scenario assumes HIMS executes well on its product roadmap and takes advantage of the ZAVA acquisition, but doesn’t fully capitalize on any possible new opportunities like the GLP-1 has been for them. While the EPS expectation might seem absurd at first glance, note that this company is still in the early stage of profitability spending heavily on marketing and therefore still has much room for more profits.

While a FPE of 50 is still a similar valuation to that of stock today, it does count on the stock still having a strong supporter base and S\P500 inclusion keeping the stock momentum going. With these assumptions, HIMS could deliver almost a 4x return from here, showing that the stock is way more undervalued than it looks at first glance.

10. Bull Case: Great Revenue + Insane Margins

Revenue: 2.5B 2025	40% growth YoY 2026–2028	6.86B revenue 2028
EPS: 1.25 EPS 2025	60% growth YoY 2026–2028	5.12 EPS 2028
Valuation	FPE of 60 in 2028	S&P 500 inclusion, 40%+ & 60%+ growth (top/bottom line), retail momentum + Wall Street belief in new-age health

This bullish scenario assumes HIMS capitalizes on upcoming opportunities while keeping core growth very steady and having expansion into ROW, at the same time focussing more on profits in the latter years and growing margins.

Even at a 60x multiple, the valuation is defensible for a company growing earnings 5x+ and revenue 7x+ faster than the average S&P 500 firm. This simply has HIMS moving the valuation up a small bit, based on continued retail and Wall Street belief in the company as new age health, and S&P500 inclusion leading to upward momentum.

11. Bear Arguments: Common Concerns Addressed

• Bear Case: $94.8 (EPS $2.37 × FPE 40) → ~88% upside
• Base Case: $194 (EPS $3.88 × FPE 50) → ~almost 4x upside
• Bull Case: $307.2 (EPS $5.12 × FPE 60) → ~6x upside

No matter the scenario, HIMS offers asymmetric upside, even after the massive runup in the last year. As you can see, with a growth company like Hims the long-term results can vary a lot based on which valuation the company gets and changes in EPS growth of 10% more or less.

In the possibility of bear case, HIMS already gives you an incredible outperformance of the S&P500, the benchmark for investors.

12. Rebuttals: Bear Arguments Debunked

“GLP-1 revenue will end”

While GLP-1s have been a major contributor to recent growth, HIMS’s core business segments, including hair loss, mental health, and ED treatments, continue to grow at a healthy pace. The company is also actively expanding into new verticals like testosterone and menopause, which could help diversify revenue and reduce reliance on any one product line.

“HIMS has legal issues”

There have been serious developments in terms of legal issues. In case of a major lawsuit or a war with Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), the stock might have a 10-30% negative impact because of valuation compression. But my projections leave plenty room for ‘error’ for this to still be an incredible investment.

“HIMS is overvalued”

The argument that HIMS is overvalued often stems from a narrow view of its valuation metrics without considering its growth profile or stage of profitability. While trading at a forward P/E in the 50s and a P/S of 4.8 may appear expensive in isolation, these figures are more reasonable when framed against 60%+ revenue growth and improving margins.

Importantly, HIMS is still early in its profitability cycle and reinvesting heavily in growth, which tends to compress near-term earnings. The company’s long-term guidance supports continued double-digit growth, even if revenue growth decelerates over time.

Compared to other high-growth, early-stage disruptors. such as Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL), Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) and Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD), HIMS trades at a lower forward P/S multiple, suggesting it may be relatively undervalued within its peer group, assuming execution remains strong.

“No Moat?”

HIMS is building a data-driven feedback loop that improves personalization and care outcomes as the platform scales. While this isn't a traditional network effect, it can contribute to improved retention and treatment efficacy. However, it remains to be seen how defensible this model is as competitors enter the DTC telehealth space with similar capabilities.

“Bad Long-Term Targets”

The $6.5B+ revenue projection means a revenue CAGR 2026-2030 of at least 22.2%. This is communicating to Wall Street that they have growth for days, but committing to something that can be easily beaten: Hims beat their previous long-term revenue target handsomely. If a 22% CAGR is your sandbag, you’re a special company.

13. Final Thoughts

HIMS brings together several attractive characteristics for long-term growth investors: a sizable addressable market, expanding product lines, improving margins, and early signs of operating leverage. While execution risks remain, particularly around regulation, competition, and international expansion, its direct-to-consumer telehealth model has shown strong early traction. For those comfortable with volatility and valuation risk, HIMS offers a credible long-term growth thesis in a transforming industry.

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